WHEN THE WATERS ROSE: The Flooding in Mokwa and What It Tells Us About Nigeria’s Climate Future

In the early hours of May 2025, the sleepy town of Mokwa in Niger State was violently awakened. A heavy downpour transformed into a furious flood, sweeping away homes, markets, and families. Few days after, over 200 people were confirmed dead, and hundreds remained missing.

The Mokwa tragedy is not an isolated event — it is a chapter in a much larger story of climate change, poor infrastructure, and failed policies in Nigeria. As extreme weather patterns escalate, Nigeria’s vulnerability to floods is now a national emergency.

A WETTER DANGER: CLIMATE CHANGE AND NIGERIA’S FLOODING PATTERN

From the devastating 2012 floods that affected 30 states to the 2022 catastrophe that killed over 600 Nigerians, each year brings increasing flood casualties and billions in losses. According to the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) and NiMET, 2025 could be worse — with 33 states and over 1,200 communities at risk.

Why?

Extreme Rainfall

As global temperatures rise, the atmosphere retains more moisture, leading to frequent and intense downpours. These sudden and overwhelming bursts of rain cause flash floods, particularly in urban areas where drainage systems struggle to cope. Poor city planning and outdated infrastructure further aggravate the problem, turning streets into rivers and submerging homes, businesses, and transport networks. In places like Lagos and Port Harcourt, flooding often leads to property destruction, displacement, and even loss of life.

Sea-Level Rise

Coastal erosion and tidal surges put low-lying regions at significant risk. In Nigeria, states such as Lagos and Bayelsa face constant threats of saltwater intrusion, which damages freshwater supplies and agricultural lands. Communities living near the tributaries to major rivers and the Atlantic shoreline frequently experience flooding from rising water and sea levels, which gradually forces migration inland. Economic hubs like Victoria Island and Lekki have been battling these encroachments through sand-filling and barrier installations, but these efforts require long-term commitments and funding.

Deforestation

Nigeria loses over 400,000 hectares of forest annually, reducing its ability to naturally absorb excess water. Forests act as sponges, slowing runoff and preventing rapid flooding. As trees are removed for timber, agriculture, and urban expansion, the land becomes more vulnerable to erosion and waterlogging. The destruction of wetlands, particularly in states in the middle belt and the Niger Delta, has worsened flood incidents, as these ecosystems traditionally help in flood regulation.

Poor Drainage & Silted Rivers

Major rivers, including the Niger and Benue, have become shallower due to sediment buildup, restricting their capacity to carry floodwaters safely. As drainage systems clog, flood risks escalate, especially in communities relying on river transport and irrigation. The Orashi River in Rivers State, for example, has seen significant siltation, reducing its ability to drain excess rainfall effectively. Without regular dredging and proper waste management, many rivers fail to serve their purpose, leading to persistent flooding that disrupts livelihoods

Poor Waste Management: Choking Our Cities, One Gutter at a Time

Nigeria generates an estimated 32 million tonnes of solid waste annually, with over 2.5 million tonnes produced in Lagos alone. Yet, a significant portion of this waste—especially plastics and non-biodegradables—ends up in the wrong places: drains, rivers, canals, and streets. When it rains, these clogged drainage systems back up, turning roads into rivers and compounds into swamps. In cities like Port Harcourt and Kano, blocked gutters are so common that flooding occurs even after short showers. Moreover, unmanaged dumpsites often collapse into nearby streams and water channels, worsening pollution and flood intensity. Without a culture of waste segregation, recycling, or effective municipal collection, flood risks will remain high—especially in informal settlements and low-income urban areas

ROADMAP TO SAFETY: SHORT, MEDIUM, AND LONG-TERM SOLUTIONS

SHORT-TERM: RESCUE AND READINESS

Expand Early Warning Systems

To reduce casualties, Nigeria needs a localized, multi-platform warning system. Digital apps, SMS, radio, and even traditional town criers should communicate weather threats in local languages. Real-time monitoring using AI-powered satellite tools and localized forecasting stations can give communities vital minutes to evacuate.

Community-Based Preparedness

Train local volunteers as first responders and create community emergency response committees. Public education campaigns can use roleplays, town hall meetings, and market outreach to teach evacuation procedures, dangers of clogged drains, and how to react during heavy rain.

Temporary Shelters and Relief Stockpiles

Governments should pre-identify schools and religious centers as emergency shelters. These should be equipped with emergency kits: dry food, bedding, medicine, toilets, and solar lighting. Quick response saves lives when infrastructure fails.

MEDIUM-TERM: RESILIENCE INFRASTRUCTURE

Dredging of Key Waterways

Rivers like the Engenni River (Orashi), River Niger, and River Benue are no longer deep or free-flowing. Dredging removes years of silt, enabling water to flow quickly and reduce inland flooding. It also revives ecosystems and enables boat transport, a key livelihood for riverine communities.

Complete and Build Dams

Projects like the Dasin Hausa Dam — originally designed to counter overflow from Cameroon’s Lagdo Dam — remain incomplete. These dams could regulate river volume, prevent flash floods, and provide additional benefits like electricity, irrigation, and potable water.

Zoning Laws and Urban Green Belts

Nigeria’s urban sprawl has taken over wetlands and floodplains. Enforcing zoning regulations — and developing green belts in cities — would allow rainwater to be absorbed naturally, reducing pressure on drainage infrastructure.

LONG-TERM: TRANSFORMATION AND SUSTAINABILITY

 Climate Change Mitigation

To avoid future flooding, Nigeria must reduce emissions. This includes phasing out gas flaring, stopping illegal logging, transitioning to solar and wind power, and improving public transport to reduce car emissions. Supporting reforestation programs and adopting eco-friendly agricultural practices are critical.

Smart Cities and Flood-Resilient Designs

Urban planning must change. Cities should include elevated roads, flood-resistant housing, rain-harvesting systems, and green rooftops. Permeable pavements can help absorb excess water. Lagos, Port Harcourt, and Abuja should pilot climate-smart neighbourhood models with support from international partners.

Regional River Basin Management

The Niger and Benue Rivers cross several West African countries. Nigeria must work with neighbours to coordinate dam releases, sediment management, and early warnings. A shared river basin strategy can reduce surprise floods and enhance regional cooperation.

WHO SHOULD DO WHAT: SHARED RESPONSIBILITIES

Level  of  Responsibilities

Federal Government Fund dredging and dam construction; coordinate national disaster management; secure international climate financing.

State Governments    Enforce zoning laws, dredge local rivers, relocate settlements in danger zones, and host emergency shelters.

Local Governments   Create grassroots warning systems, mobilize communities, conduct drills, and clear blocked drains and canals.

THE ROLE OF SOCIAL ACTION

Social Action, a civil society leader, has long warned of Nigeria’s vulnerability to floods. Through its Climate Justice and Emergencies Program, the organization:

• Trains communities on disaster response.
• Tracks the misuse of Ecological Funds meant for flood control.
• Lobbies state and federal governments for better planning and accountability.
• Hosts forums on Loss and Damage, spotlighting victims of climate-related disasters.

In the Niger Delta, Social Action has supported community efforts to maintain waterways, demand government action, and seek legal protection for displaced persons.

PARTNERSHIP FOR THE FUTURE: JOINING HANDS AGAINST 2025 FLOODS

To avert a repeat of the Mokwa tragedy:

NGOs & Civil Society:

Launch community flood-watch programs. Run awareness campaigns. Partner with schools and churches for safe shelter development.

Private Sector:

Offer flood insurance for vulnerable households. Sponsor localized weather tech solutions and support dredging as part of CSR.

Media:

Shine a light on preparedness gaps. Monitor and report government promises and flood-related corruption.

International Donors:

Support the implementation of Nigeria’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and fund grassroots climate resilience programs.

CONCLUSION: NEVER AGAIN

The floodwaters may have receded in Mokwa, but the trauma remains. As the 2025 rains approach, every Nigerian — from policymaker to villager — has a role in prevention. With bold investments, political will, and a people-first approach, Nigeria can turn the tide — from tragedy to transformation.