Tinubu’s Borrowing Spree and Nigeria’s Descent into Debt Slavery – Despite Fuel Subsidy

When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, one of his first acts was the abrupt removal of fuel subsidies — a decision hailed by global financial institutions and celebrated as a bold move toward economic reform. But two years into his administration, Nigeria’s economic trajectory paints a troubling picture of fiscal contradiction and deepening hardship for the average citizen

A Disturbing Debt Trajectory
According to figures from the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s total public debt has soared from ₦78.1 trillion in June 2023 to ₦133.3 trillion by December 2024. That’s a massive ₦55.2 trillion increase in just 18 months — more than 140 percent increase from ₦37.79 trillion added during the entire eight-year tenure of former President Muhammadu Buhari (2015–2023).

This borrowing surge, occurring during a period when subsidy savings were supposed to ease fiscal pressure, has raised serious concerns among economic experts, civil society organizations, and citizens alike.

Fuel Subsidy Removal: The Reality Behind the Rhetoric
The Tinubu administration promised that ending subsidies would save the country over $20 billion in its first year. Finance Minister Wale Edun echoed this optimism, claiming Nigeria was on a stronger fiscal path. But the on-ground reality has been harsher: inflation soared to over 30%, fuel prices tripled, and millions of Nigerians sank further into poverty.

Adding to the confusion, the administration in May 2025 requested another $21.5 billion in foreign loans, with additional proposals in euros and yen. These moves contradict the narrative of fiscal relief following subsidy removal.

El-Rufai Echoed Social Actions Fears
In early 2024, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai publicly questioned the government’s claims that the fuel subsidy had been removed.

“They said subsidy is gone, but it’s not true,” El-Rufai stated. “They are still paying. They just stopped talking about it.”

Initially brushed off as political grandstanding, El-Rufai’s comments have now been substantiated by investigative reports. Leaked documents and internal briefings show the federal government secretly spent over ₦3.6 trillion between May 2023 and April 2025 to stabilize fuel prices.

Despite naira volatility and global oil price fluctuations, domestic pump prices have remained stable — suggesting hidden subsidies continue behind the scenes.

Social Action’s Longstanding Warnings
At Social Development Integrated Centre (Social Action), we have consistently raised alarms over Nigeria’s deepening debt crisis and the opacity surrounding fiscal policy.

Since 2009, Social Action has been at the forefront of demanding fiscal accountability through grassroots mobilization, policy analysis, and advocacy. From the 2015 report “Who Benefits from Nigerian Budgets?” to the 2023 publication “Public Debts and the Burden of Governance,” our work has spotlighted the dangers of excessive borrowing and misguided subsidy regimes.

In 2024 and 2025, we intensified this advocacy with town halls, radio engagements, and budget monitoring programs across Nigeria, revealing how trillions in public debt fail to reflect in service delivery, infrastructure, or poverty reduction. Our most recent briefing, “Subsidy or Scam? The Hidden Cost of Reforms in Nigeria,” uncovered billions in covert subsidy spending despite official narratives to the contrary.

Our call has remained consistent: transparency, citizen engagement, and debt justice.

A Broken Fiscal Promise
Instead of stabilizing the economy, Tinubu’s policies appear to be worsening the crisis. In just two months of 2024, Nigeria spent ₦13 trillion servicing debt — a figure that suggests public finance is now in survival mode. While elites live comfortably, everyday Nigerians endure higher transport fares, skyrocketing food prices, and stagnant wages. Once again, the poorest citizens are paying for the failures of elite decision-making.

What Comes Next?

The Nigerian public deserves more than silence. Citizens were told that painful decisions — like the removal of fuel subsidies — would free up resources for national development. Yet, in the face of rising inflation, deteriorating living standards, and an alarming debt profile, Nigerians are left to wonder: Where are the savings? What exactly have the trillions of naira borrowed in the past 18 months funded? Where are the schools, hospitals, roads, or industries that justify this borrowing spree? And why, despite the public declaration that “subsidy is gone,” do fuel prices remain relatively stable — suggesting continued government intervention?

These are not rhetorical questions. They are matters of national accountability. The current situation reflects a worrying trend of opaque governance: huge sums are borrowed in the name of reform, but the public sees no clear outcome. The fiscal reforms promised to stabilize the economy now appear to be masking the same unsustainable practices of the past, only with new labels.

The Social Development Integrated Centre (Social Action) has, since 2009, consistently advocated for fiscal transparency, prudent public finance management, and people-centered economic reforms. Through town halls, research reports, policy briefs, legislative engagements, and citizen education, Social Action has warned against unchecked borrowing and the dangers of veiled subsidy regimes. Today, those warnings appear prophetic, as Nigeria teeters on the edge of debt slavery — borrowing heavily not for growth, but to plug leaks and fund inefficiencies.

Nigeria is now at a fiscal crossroads. The urgency of this moment cannot be overstated. The government must immediately begin publishing detailed reports on subsidy expenditures and debt utilization. Citizens deserve to see how every borrowed dollar or naira is spent. If fuel subsidies are still being paid in secret, the deception must end. If borrowed funds are being mismanaged, those responsible must be held to account.

Bold reforms must be matched by bold transparency. Without clear answers and visible improvements in the lives of ordinary Nigerians, the promises of reform ring hollow. Continuing this trajectory will only mortgage the future of a nation already overburdened — and push millions deeper into poverty.

Nigeria’s path forward must be one of honesty, discipline, and public trust. Anything less is a betrayal of the very people these policies claim to serve

References

•   Debt Management Office (DMO) Reports (2015–2025)
•   Social Action Publications (2009–2025)
•   Federal Ministry of Finance Briefings
•   Media Interviews and Investigative Reports (2023–2025)